Restaurant Industry Returns to Neutral Growth as Operators More Bullish on Sales

Restaurant operators appeared more optimistic about their sales growth in November, leading to the second consecutive increase in the National Restaurant Association’s monthly Restaurant Performance Index.

The index rose 0.2% in November to 100, the highest level since June. The 100 mark represents a neutral period for the industry, as a number above 100 signals that the restaurant industry is growing, while a value below 100 indicates contraction. The index is made up of two components, the Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor, and capital expenditures), and the Expectations Index, which measures the six-month outlook for same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures, and business conditions.

The overall index rose in November on the strength of the Expectations Index, which was up 0.8% to 100.8, the highest reading in 10 months. The National Restaurant Association credited that uptick to restaurant operators becoming more bullish about their future sales, with 41% now expecting their sales volume in six months to be higher than the same period last year. That was an increase from 30% in September’s report.

The improvement in expectations was somewhat offset by the industry’s current conditions. Forty-seven percent of operators said their same-store sales rose between November 2024 and November 2025, down 1% from the month before. Meanwhile, 48% said year-over-year traffic was down, an increase from 35% in October.

Customer traffic also remains a sore spot for most operators. Fifty-one percent reported fewer customers than a year ago, up from 48% who said the same in September. That marked the 10th consecutive month in which operators reported a net decline in customer traffic.

Although conditions in the restaurant industry remain mixed, operators are continuing to invest in equipment purchases and other capital expenditures. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they have made a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion, or remodeling during the last three months. Additionally, 55% said they plan to make a capital expenditure sometime in the next six months, marking the eighth consecutive month in which a majority of operators reported plans for capital spending.

The full Restaurant Performance Index for November 2025 can be found here.