Restaurant Sales and Customer Traffic Trended Up in June

The restaurant industry is trending upward, as June saw the best comparable sales results in 18 months, according to new data from Black Box Intelligence.

Same-store sales rose 2 percent in June, the largest increase since January and the fourth highest month since August 2023. Even the industry’s ongoing struggles with customer traffic are starting to see improvement. Although still negative, customer traffic improved to a 0.9 percent decline, the best result since January and the third strongest in more than three years.

The uptick was seen across the board for the restaurant industry. Every segment aside from fast casual experienced a larger sales increase in June than the month before. Casual dining led all areas, continuing to hold the top spot it has had since March. Fine dining, on the other hand, posted the weakest same-store sales growth for the third time since March. Black Box noted that fine dining’s struggles suggested even higher-income consumers are trading down from expensive restaurant experiences into more affordable fast casual or quick-service options.

Part of the reason, Black Box explained, is that the higher menu prices that are typical of fine dining restaurants also raise expectations among diners. While online reviews improved across most segments, guest sentiment declined in the upscale casual and fine dining categories. If guests are paying more but do not feel they are having a memorable experience, they are less likely to return, Black Box noted.

Looking ahead, Black Box warned that tariffs and a worsening labor market could affect conditions in the restaurant industry. “The consumer may be feeling a little less pessimistic than in previous months, but the bigger story continues to be the expected slowdown in the economy this year, with a rise in inflation and the unemployment rate,” Victor Fernandez, chief insights officer, said. “July will likely be a good month for sales and traffic growth, given the very weak results posted by the industry in July of 2024. But the forecast continues to be for softening sales and traffic growth through the rest of the year, particularly in Q4.”

The full Black Box Intelligence trends review for June is available here.