Restaurant Industry Sales Expected to Grow Despite Ongoing Cost Pressures

With economic conditions projected to improve over the next six months and consumers feeling generally positive about their personal financial situation, the National Restaurant Association expects total restaurant and foodservice sales to increase 4.3% for 2026.

The projection was revised down slightly from the 4.8% growth the association forecast at the beginning of the year. Much of that reduced growth can be attributed to the uneven customer traffic levels being experienced by the industry. To make up for fewer customers, restaurants have increased menu prices. In inflation-adjusted terms, restaurant sales are projected to increase 0.8% in 2026, less than the 1.3% increase originally expected, the National Restaurant Association said.

While that slightly lower projection reflects challenging business conditions, the fact that the industry is still growing demonstrates resilience, the association said. According to a National Restaurant Association study, 98% of travelers plan to use restaurants during summer trips this year. That makes eating out one of the most popular activities for tourists, ranking ahead of shopping, sightseeing, and going to the beach. Further, businesses expect gasoline prices to decrease in the coming months, which would ease pressure on household budgets and support restaurant traffic. Thanks in part to these positive indicators, restaurant sales are expected to grow 4.8% in 2027.

Those increased sales will be needed to help offset rising costs. Food and labor expenses remain the two most significant line items for restaurants, and both have seen sharp jumps over the past few years. Average hourly earnings for restaurant employees have risen 41% since February 2020, while average wholesale food prices are up 35%. Adding to those pressures, operators are also contending with higher expenses for insurance, taxes, and credit card processing fees.

The National Restaurant Association’s full economic analysis for the second half of 2026 is available here.